What was your experience of the engagement ministers between civil servants, government ministers and the private sector? What worked? What didn’t?

Historically, said Ms. O’Neill, and particularly regarding the energy transition, government and industry haven’t been good at coming together in a creative way to find better solutions. In her experience as UK Minister for Climate Change & Energy, she said government did gradually engage more effectively with industry. Overall, however, she gave the government-private sector interface a C+ rating.

“I think we have to come together as can be done, as we saw, for example, in the offshore wind sector deal in the UK, and start trusting each other to have those dialogs—and to be thinking a little bit beyond the next five years, which is the typical electoral cycle, to be planning for 30 to 40 years.

What was the involvement of the private sector, in Singapore? Did you have discussions with them before making some of the recent big announcements?

Mr. Tan said the Singapore government likes to involve industries whenever it’s thought there will be impact on those industries. “I think the private sector brings a lot more in terms of technology knowledge that they can value-add to the policy formulation process.” He said many companies were consulted while planning the carbon tax regime and, one result was an agreed introductory period at $5 per ton that would be gradually moved up. It was also agreed that the collected tax would be invested back into creating solutions toward higher sustainability. “I think we ended up with a better policy because of that at the end of the day.”

China surprised many observers with its bold decarbonization plan, zero carbon by 2060. Was the industry much involved in that or was it more or less a top down strategy?

Dr. Lei Yang said, roughly speaking, it was a top-down process, but that there were also fundamental industry consultations. While China has enormous and growing renewables, he emphasized that renewable all alone won’t be enough. So he sees working together as very important, particularly regarding technology innovations for CCUS and other necessary areas.

In Nigeria, the energy transition is going to be extremely difficult. What is the industry doing to play a role in shaping the agenda and shaping the transition?

Mr. Adeyemi-Bero said it’s a mix of common-sense directives and collaborations with industry to execute. The government has made 20% unconditional—it must happen—while 40% is conditional, working with industry. I think the benefit of having the five major oil and gas players globally present in Nigeria is they cascade global standards into the operations in Nigeria.” And the indigenous players have signed up to carbonemission protocols.

Philip Lambert was very closely engaged in the UK’s big policy of moving from coal to gas in the 2010s. What worked? What didn’t?

Mr. Lambert said government set very ambitious goals, and then asked the private sector what could be done. It was incredibly exciting because the private sector stepped up to the plate. Government set a benevolent framework and didn’t micromanage. North Sea gas and wind subsequently replaced coal for baseload power generation—and, within about five years, UK carbon emissions fell back to 1880 levels.

There’s been a big backlash against gas in the intervening period of time. Is it now seen as a dirty fuel? What do you think should be done about it?

“If the world is interested in decarbonizing over the next 10 years,” said Mr. Lambert, “it’s got to do something about 70 million barrels a day of coal that we still have.” He said gas is more affordable and usable at the moment than nuclear, and it’s quicker to roll out. While he agreed that most gas has issues like methane leakage and flaring that must be reduced, he thinks it’s very counterproductive to demonize gas.

How do you see the role of gas in terms of creating a balance between different decarbonization strategies?

Ms. O’Neill says there’s not enough clarity on how long gas needs to be viewed as a transition fuel, and that environmental groups are concerned that many companies are just talking about gas as a way of maximizing extraction for as long as possible.

“When we’re building out in coal-dependent economies for gas, we need to be thinking about the role of hydrogen and also the role of distributed energy that can bring distributed renewables.” She said that a broader conversation is needed between companies and governments about what the future grid will be. And there needs to be some real investment and real technology deployment now.

With gas consumption at around 9% of China’s total energy mix, Dr. Yang expects it to play an important role in the coming decade. He felt that it should be used for peak generation, and that more solar and wind should be added to the system.

Without much thermal, hydro, or wind, Mr. Tan said the transition is going to be difficult for Singapore. He said the region is rich in storage capacity and that there’s growing interest in the region for a carbon hub. They are looking to companies that have the capabilities—and that Singapore is willing to collaborate and co-invest in the R&D.

Are we seeing any activity around hydrogen in China?

“Hydrogen is a hot topic in China,” said Dr. Yang, and government and industry have invested billions already. But he says the technology and economic performance aren’t viable yet. So he sees a continued focus on solar and wind in the meantime. He called for increased partnership between Eastern and Western energy companies in both traditional and new energy. “If we work closer, we will accelerate the energy transition.”

Nigeria has an abundance of oil and gas resources, yet people are struggling to get clean power. Some people are struggling to get any power. What is the role of the oil and gas industry in trying to change that situation?

Mr. Adeyemi-Bero said it’s a developmental issue. Right now, Nigeria is focused mostly on oil because it generates 90% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. But it’s transitioning to gas. “I think the challenge has been building the gas infrastructure here to support gas as a fuel for our generation and energizing the economy.” But he thinks the message is gradually getting absorbed that gas isn’t so much a revenue stream as it is an enabler for economic growth and restructuring— fundamental tenets of the Nigeria Gas Master Plan.

He reminded viewers that energy transition is different for every region of the world. “I think if you look at sub-Saharan Africa, energy transition is going to have to focus on what is the right mix for us. And I think the right mix for sub-Saharan Africa is to move from burning wood and coal and oil for energy generation to transitioning to gas and renewables.” He said there’s already a move toward solar in some parts of Nigeria that don’t have gas. In 2020, for example, the Borno State Government, in north-eastern Nigeria, commissioned the largest solar panel manufacturing plant in Africa.

What scope do you see for partnerships, maybe East-West partnerships? How is this likely to go forward?

Mr. Lambert said the key requirement is more moderate collaborative debate and structure for IOCs the traditional majors to link up with renewable companies. He said that’s beginning to happen. “You’ve got to have much greater collaboration between the west and east, otherwise the energy transition will be a transition for, you know, a billion people, but not agreed with by seven billion people.” He expects this to be a key topic at COP 26.

What key steps should governments be prioritizing right now? And how should the private sector be supporting those strategies?

Drawing on his experience with the UK gas transition, Mr. Lambert said he hopes it doesn’t become too ideological and too government-controlled. “Let’s make Glasgow a time when we really drive the thing forward pragmatically and sensibly and unleash the private sector with the right government framework. That would be an amazing success for COP 26.”

What do you think governments will be wanting to hear from the private sector in order to support them in getting there?

Ms. O’Neill believes there’s a significant head of steam building up among private sector companies and advocacy organizations like WBCSD and the IEA who want to use COP 26 to set up these energy pathways. “So I think the message is let’s pull together, let us work around the COP process.” She said there’s extraordinary consensus emerging over what the energy system might look like, and that the COP moment should be used to really come forward with some very firm proposals that are private-sector led.

Mr. Tan said governments definitely want to hear companies’ concrete proposals on how to make it work. “Bring ideas on how we could make some of these projects economically viable, and bring ideas as to what areas we may have to coinvest with companies in terms of R&D.”

What would you say should be the top priority given the uncertainties ahead? 

Ms. O’Neill said emphatically, “Get the world off coal.” She believes the energy solutions exist, but more thought must go into co-funding some of the very difficult coal transitions, particularly in countries like South Africa. “That is the number one thing we could do to start seeing a change in the trajectory of the Keeling curve right now.”