Both conventional and renewables will continue to play an important role in the transition - Farid Al Awlaqi

Farid Al Awlaqi

Mr. Al Awlaqi says we must not develop in such a way that leaves people behind or exacerbates poverty—that investment is key. He cited one example of how the
UAE invested heavily in solar when others considered it too expensive, but the result has been the lowest-cost electricity ever; and another where it installed
subsea grid connections that immediately cut ADNOC’s emissions by 30%. Moving forward, Mr. Al Awlaqi is most concerned with geopolitical security issues and
recent trends toward deglobalization. This is actually a global problem that needs more collaboration ... otherwise, we’re off track and we’re not going to get there.

Helima Croft

Dr. Croft says the last 12 months have brought energy security back to the top of the policy agenda. One thing she’s most concerned about is that we’ll become too complacent, and policymakers won’t properly address the economic risk posed by underinvestment. She’s also concerned that potential energy crises could weaken support for critical geopolitical issues such as the war in Ukraine, and feels that having stable supplies of hydrocarbons will be incredibly important for the transition and for keeping populations onside with geopolitical progress. She also believes more attention must be paid to the geopolitics of renewables - where are critical minerals coming from, who controls processing, what does competition look like?

If I’m concerned about one thing, it’s that we will become too complacent

Kazutomo Irie

With Mr. Irie’s research focused on Asia, he said most leaders tend to prioritize security and affordability over decarbonization, which makes sense because they need to feed rapidly growing economies. The subsidies entrenched in this approach, unfortunately insulate populations from outside shock, and prohibit the pricing mechanism from reducing consumption of power or fuels. He believes the biggest hurdle is that Asian national grid systems are not fully developed or interconnected, so the intermittency of solar and wind power cannot be mitigated. Therefore, fossil fuels cannot be abandoned all at once.

The leaders of these countries tended to put priority on security and affordability over decarbonization

Octavio Simoes

With 18% of the world’s population using 40% of the energy, and the other 82% of people needing economic growth and more energy, Mr. Simoes said “The moral
of the story is that, if we try to solve the issues with the energy sector, to deal with climate change without lifting people out of poverty throughout the world, then we will not succeed.” Where government policy is concerned, Simoes say that rather than spending hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for winter price coverage, they could invest a fraction of that to get natural gas in about four years. He feels the root of the investment problem is the vilification of fuel sources which needs to give way to a focus on emissions reductions.

The last 12 months showed us that we really are on the wrong path to decarbonize

Onursal Soyer

The knock-on effects of energy security, says Mr. Soyer, are now recognized fundamentally, especially among Asian nations that are becoming worried about the behavior of Western governments not necessarily allowing the energy system to invest. He believes there is huge merit in replacing high-emission fossil fuels with low-emission natural gas and other sources. But it’s very difficult getting the required investment funds right now because there is considerable policy uncertainty for 25 to 30 years in the future which is a huge impediment to getting gas supply where it needs to be. He also wondered why, with record consumption, major oil and gas companies are returning such significant sums to shareholders instead of re-investing.

The more we stop natural gas and potentially blue hydrogen linked to natural gas from replacing coal, the more we are making this cumulative CO2 problem worse